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Paper 4 (9164, Section A) · June 2017 · Binomial and Geometric Distributions

X is a discrete random variable with a geometric distribution, X∼Geo(0.4)X \sim Geo(0.4), counting the number of trials up to and including the first success.

Find P(X≤7)P(X \le 7).

Model answer

0.972

Also accepted: 0,972, 0.97, 0,97, 0.9720, 0,9720, 0.97201, 0,97201, 0.9720064, 0,9720064

Explanation

The probability of success on any one trial is p=0.4p = 0.4, so the probability of failure is q=0.6q = 0.6.

X exceeds 7 exactly when the first seven trials all fail, so P(X>7)=0.67=0.0279936P(X > 7) = 0.6^{7} = 0.0279936.

Therefore P(X≤7)=1−0.0279936=0.9720064P(X \le 7) = 1 - 0.0279936 = 0.9720064, which is 0.972 to 3 significant figures and 0.97 to 2 significant figures.

Working through the tail is much quicker than adding the seven separate terms 0.4,0.4(0.6),0.4(0.6)2,…0.4, 0.4(0.6), 0.4(0.6)^{2}, \dots, though that sum gives the same value.

Derived from ZIMSEC Statistics Paper 4, June 2017, Q1

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