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Paper 4 (9164, Section A) · June 2016 · Normal Distribution

The diameters of washers produced by a machine follow a Normal distribution with standard deviation 0.1 mm and unknown mean μ\mu. The mean is to be set so that the probability that a diameter exceeds 2.0 mm is 0.03.

Writing the condition as P(Z<2−μ0.1)=0.97P\left(Z < \dfrac{2 - \mu}{0.1}\right) = 0.97, state the value of z for which Φ(z)=0.97\Phi(z) = 0.97.

Model answer

1.881

Also accepted: 1,881, 1.88, 1,88, 1.9, 1,9, 1.8808, 1,8808

Explanation

The tail probability above 2.0 mm is 0.03, so the probability below it is 1−0.03=0.971 - 0.03 = 0.97.

A Normal table gives the value of the standard Normal variable whose cumulative probability is 0.97, and reading it off gives z=1.881z = 1.881.

This is the number the standardised diameter 2−μ0.1\dfrac{2 - \mu}{0.1} must equal, and everything else in the question follows from it.

Derived from ZIMSEC Statistics Paper 4, June 2016, Q1

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