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ZIMSEC A Level · 9164/4 · J2012

Statistics Paper 4 June 2012

Questions
41
Total marks
96
Syllabus code
9164/4

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Questions
41
Pass mark
25
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Answer every question in the printed order, get marked at the end, then see the answers.

The questions

Section a

Section a, Question 2

[2 marks]Geometric distribution
A random variable W has a geometric distribution, W∼Geo(p)W \sim Geo(p), counting the number of trials up to and including the first success. Given that Var(W)=30Var(W) = 30, find the value of p.

Answer this when you sit the paper.

[2 marks]Geometric distribution
A random variable W has a geometric distribution, W∼Geo(p)W \sim Geo(p), counting the number of trials up to and including the first success. Given that Var(W)=30Var(W) = 30, find E(W).

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[2 marks]Continuous random variables

X is a continuous random variable with probability density function

f(x)={2−2x0≤x≤10otherwise.f(x)=\begin{cases}2-2x & 0 \le x \le 1\\ 0 & \text{otherwise.}\end{cases}

Which of these is the cumulative distribution function F(x)?

  1. AF(x)=0F(x)=0 for x<0x<0; F(x)=2x−2x2F(x)=2x-2x^{2} for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1; F(x)=1F(x)=1 for x>1x>1
  2. BF(x)=0F(x)=0 for x<0x<0; F(x)=2−2xF(x)=2-2x for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1; F(x)=1F(x)=1 for x>1x>1
  3. CF(x)=0F(x)=0 for x<0x<0; F(x)=2x−x2F(x)=2x-x^{2} for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1; F(x)=1F(x)=1 for x>1x>1
  4. DF(x)=0F(x)=0 for x<0x<0; F(x)=x2−2xF(x)=x^{2}-2x for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1; F(x)=1F(x)=1 for x>1x>1
[2 marks]Continuous random variables

X is a continuous random variable with probability density function f(x)=2−2xf(x)=2-2x for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1 and f(x)=0f(x)=0 otherwise, so its cumulative distribution function is F(x)=2x−x2F(x)=2x-x^{2} on 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1.

Find P(X≤13)P\left(X \le \dfrac{1}{3}\right), giving your answer as an exact fraction.

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[2 marks]Continuous random variables

X is a continuous random variable with probability density function f(x)=2−2xf(x)=2-2x for 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1 and f(x)=0f(x)=0 otherwise, so its cumulative distribution function is F(x)=2x−x2F(x)=2x-x^{2} on 0≤x≤10 \le x \le 1.

Find the value of p such that P(X<p)=15P(X < p) = \dfrac{1}{5}.

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[3 marks]Tree diagrams and conditional probability

In a certain court there are only two verdicts, "convicted" or "discharged". Of all the cases tried by this court, 80% of the verdicts were convictions. When the verdict is "convicted" the probability that the accused person is innocent is 0.07, and when the verdict is "discharged" the probability that the accused person is innocent is 0.4.

Find the probability that a person tried by this court is innocent.

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[3 marks]Tree diagrams and conditional probability

In a certain court there are only two verdicts, "convicted" or "discharged". Of all the cases tried by this court, 80% of the verdicts were convictions. When the verdict is "convicted" the probability that the accused person is innocent is 0.07, and when the verdict is "discharged" the probability that the accused person is innocent is 0.4.

Find the conditional probability that an innocent person tried by this court is convicted.

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[2 marks]Median of a data set

The Biology marks of a group of 24 students were

36, 45, 40, 60, 71, 66, 53, 42, 35, 54, 35, 43, 72, 37, 39, 34, 49, 43, 75, 58, 67, 59, 36, 67

Find the median mark.

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[2 marks]Median of a data set

The Integrated Science marks of a group of 24 students were

88, 89, 30, 34, 48, 49, 59, 65, 67, 78, 41, 70, 54, 66, 39, 49, 37, 59, 45, 63, 52, 75, 38, 38

Find the median mark.

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[2 marks]Quartiles and interquartile range

The Biology marks of a group of 24 students were

36, 45, 40, 60, 71, 66, 53, 42, 35, 54, 35, 43, 72, 37, 39, 34, 49, 43, 75, 58, 67, 59, 36, 67

Find the interquartile range of these marks.

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[2 marks]Comparing two distributions

For a group of 24 students, the Biology marks have median 47, lower quartile 38 and upper quartile 63. The Integrated Science marks for the same students have median 53, lower quartile 40 and upper quartile 66.5.

Which statement best compares the performance of the students in the two subjects?

  1. AThe students performed better in Biology, whose median and both quartiles are higher, and the Biology marks are also the more widely spread of the two subjects across their whole range.
  2. BThe students performed better in Integrated Science, whose median and both quartiles are higher, and the Integrated Science marks are also the more spread out of the two.
  3. CThe students performed better in Integrated Science, but the Biology marks are the more spread out, since Biology has the wider interquartile range.
  4. DThe students performed better in Biology, whose median and both quartiles are higher, and the Biology marks are also the more spread out of the two.

Section a, Question 3

[2 marks]Chi-squared test of association

The table shows the attitude of 300 parents in three parts of the country towards the introduction of incentives for teachers.

ATTITUDENORTHMIDLANDSSOUTH
LIKE372416
RESERVED335038
DISLIKE203646

A chi-squared test of association is to be carried out. Calculate the expected frequency for parents in the NORTH who LIKE the introduction of incentives.

Answer this when you sit the paper.

[3 marks]Chi-squared test of association

The table shows the attitude of 300 parents in three parts of the country towards the introduction of incentives for teachers.

ATTITUDENORTHMIDLANDSSOUTH
LIKE372416
RESERVED335038
DISLIKE203646

Calculate the value of the chi-squared test statistic for a test of association between area of residence and attitude.

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[3 marks]Chi-squared test of association

A chi-squared test of association is carried out at the 5 % level on a 3 by 3 table classifying 300 parents by area of residence (NORTH, MIDLANDS, SOUTH) and by attitude (LIKE, RESERVED, DISLIKE). The calculated test statistic is 21.75.

What are the degrees of freedom and the correct conclusion?

  1. A4 degrees of freedom, critical value 9.488; since 21.75 is greater, reject the null hypothesis and conclude there is an association between area and attitude.
  2. B4 degrees of freedom, critical value 9.488; since 21.75 is greater, accept the null hypothesis and conclude area and attitude are independent.
  3. C8 degrees of freedom, critical value 15.51; since 21.75 is greater, reject the null hypothesis and conclude there is an association between area and attitude.
  4. D2 degrees of freedom, critical value 5.991; since 21.75 is greater, reject the null hypothesis and conclude that living in the South causes a dislike of incentives.
[1 marks]Mean of a frequency distribution

The number of patients admitted into a clinic per day was recorded over a period of 30 days.

Number of patients admitted01234
Number of days591042

Calculate the mean number of patients admitted per day, correct to 2 decimal places.

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[2 marks]Poisson distribution

The number of patients admitted into a clinic per day has mean 1.63 and is modelled by a Poisson distribution.

Calculate the probability that the clinic admits exactly 2 patients on a particular day.

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[3 marks]Poisson distribution

The number of patients admitted into a clinic per day has mean 1.63 and is modelled by a Poisson distribution. Admissions on different days are independent.

Calculate the probability that the clinic admits at least 3 patients on each of two consecutive days.

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[3 marks]Poisson distribution

The number of patients admitted into a clinic per day has mean 1.63 and is modelled by a Poisson distribution. The clinic has only four beds available, so patients are turned away when more than four need to be admitted.

Calculate the probability that the clinic will turn away some patients who need to be admitted on a particular day.

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Section a, Question 4

[2 marks]Estimating a binomial parameter

A vaccine is applied to 50 samples each of 5 monkeys and the number of living monkeys in each sample was counted after one year.

Number of living monkeys in a sample012345
Frequency17209211

A binomial distribution B(5, p)B(5,\ p) is to be fitted to these data. Estimate the value of p.

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[2 marks]Expected frequencies under a binomial model

A vaccine is applied to 50 samples each of 5 monkeys. A binomial distribution B(5, 0.212)B(5,\ 0.212) is fitted to the number of living monkeys in a sample.

Calculate the expected frequency, out of the 50 samples, of samples containing exactly 1 living monkey.

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[3 marks]Chi-squared goodness of fit

A vaccine is applied to 50 samples each of 5 monkeys, giving observed frequencies 17, 20, 9, 2, 1, 1 for 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 living monkeys. A binomial distribution B(5, 0.212)B(5,\ 0.212) gives expected frequencies 15.19, 20.44, 11.00, 2.96, 0.40 and 0.02.

After pooling every class whose expected frequency is below 5 into a single class "3 or more", calculate the value of the chi-squared goodness of fit statistic.

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[2 marks]Chi-squared goodness of fit

A binomial goodness of fit test is carried out at the 5 % level on 50 samples of 5 monkeys. After pooling, four classes are compared and the parameter p was estimated from the data. The calculated chi-squared statistic is 0.70.

What are the degrees of freedom and the correct conclusion?

  1. A2 degrees of freedom, critical value 5.991; since 0.70 is smaller, the binomial model is proved to be the true distribution of the data.
  2. B3 degrees of freedom, critical value 7.815; since 0.70 is smaller, do not reject the null hypothesis, so the binomial model fits the data.
  3. C2 degrees of freedom, critical value 5.991; since 0.70 is smaller, do not reject the null hypothesis, so the binomial model fits the data.
  4. D2 degrees of freedom, critical value 5.991; since 0.70 is smaller, reject the null hypothesis, so the binomial model does not fit the data.
[2 marks]Sampling methods

A Form 5 class has 50 students and 5 are to be chosen to attend a seminar. The teacher gives the students tickets numbered 0 to 49. The students holding tickets 0 to 9 put their tickets in a hat and the teacher draws one at random, noting its digit. He then forms his sample from the students whose ticket numbers end in that digit.

Which statement about this method is correct?

  1. AIt is a random sample, because the digit is drawn at random from the hat, so the five students who end up in the sample were each settled on by chance alone and by nothing else.
  2. BIt is not a random sample, because only ten of the possible groups of 5 can ever be chosen, so most groups have no chance of selection, although each individual student has probability one tenth of being included.
  3. CIt is a random sample, because every one of the 50 students has the same probability of one tenth of appearing in the sample that is finally chosen, and equal chances for the individuals is exactly what the term random sample means.
  4. DIt is a random sample, because the digit is drawn at random from the hat and so each of the 5 students in the sample was chosen entirely by chance.
[2 marks]Sample mean

A machine should be set up to cut planks 5.00 m long. A random sample of 10 planks cut by the machine had lengths, in metres,

4.94, 4.93, 5.00, 4.76, 5.00, 4.73, 4.63, 5.01, 4.65, 5.03

Calculate the mean length of the sample.

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[2 marks]Unbiased estimate of variance

A machine should be set up to cut planks 5.00 m long. A random sample of 10 planks cut by the machine had lengths, in metres,

4.94, 4.93, 5.00, 4.76, 5.00, 4.73, 4.63, 5.01, 4.65, 5.03

The mean of this sample is 4.868 m. Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population standard deviation.

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[3 marks]t-test for a population mean

A machine should be set up to cut planks 5.00 m long. A random sample of 10 planks cut by the machine had mean length 4.868 m with unbiased estimate of standard deviation 0.1582 m.

Calculate the value of the t test statistic for testing whether the population mean length is 5.00 m.

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[2 marks]t-test for a population mean

A machine should be set up to cut planks 5.00 m long. A sample of 10 planks gives a t test statistic of −2.639-2.639 for the hypotheses H0:μ=5.00H_{0}: \mu = 5.00 against H1:μ≠5.00H_{1}: \mu \ne 5.00. The test is carried out at the 5 % level and the two-tailed critical values on 9 degrees of freedom are ±2.262\pm 2.262.

What is the correct conclusion?

  1. ASince −2.639-2.639 lies inside the critical values, retain H0H_{0}: there is no evidence that the machine needs resetting.
  2. BSince −2.639-2.639 is negative, reject H0H_{0}: a negative test statistic shows the sample mean fell below the target, so the planks are being cut too short and the machine needs resetting.
  3. CSince the sample of 10 is small, no conclusion can be drawn and a larger sample would have to be taken before testing.
  4. DSince −2.639-2.639 lies beyond −2.262-2.262, reject H0H_{0}: there is evidence at the 5 % level that the machine requires resetting.
[2 marks]Normal distribution

The weights of broiler chickens are normally distributed with mean 2 kg and standard deviation 0.3 kg. The weights of layers chickens are normally distributed with mean 1.5 kg and standard deviation 0.5 kg.

Determine, correct to 2 significant figures, the probability that a broiler chicken weighs less than 1.8 kg.

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[3 marks]Sums of normal variables

The weights of broiler chickens are normally distributed with mean 2 kg and standard deviation 0.3 kg. The weights of layers chickens are normally distributed with mean 1.5 kg and standard deviation 0.5 kg.

Determine, correct to 2 significant figures, the probability that a random sample of 4 broiler chickens weigh more than 8.2 kg in total.

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[3 marks]Differences of normal variables

The weights of broiler chickens are normally distributed with mean 2 kg and standard deviation 0.3 kg. The weights of layers chickens are normally distributed with mean 1.5 kg and standard deviation 0.5 kg.

Determine, correct to 2 significant figures, the probability that a layers chicken weighs less than a broiler chicken.

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[3 marks]Differences of normal variables

The weights of broiler chickens are normally distributed with mean 2 kg and standard deviation 0.3 kg. The weights of layers chickens are normally distributed with mean 1.5 kg and standard deviation 0.5 kg.

Determine, correct to 2 significant figures, the probability that a random sample of 8 layers chickens weigh more in total than a random sample of 6 broiler chickens.

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Section a, Question 5

[2 marks]Regression summary statistics

The marks obtained by 10 candidates in two 'O'-level mathematics papers were

Paper 1 (x)74463060805267206473
Paper 2 (y)70401842813540087268

Given that ∑x=566\sum x = 566 and ∑x2=35 510\sum x^{2}=35\,510, calculate SxxS_{xx}.

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[2 marks]Regression summary statistics

The marks obtained by 10 candidates in two 'O'-level mathematics papers were

Paper 1 (x)74463060805267206473
Paper 2 (y)70401842813540087268

Given that ∑x=566\sum x = 566, ∑y=474\sum y = 474 and ∑xy=30 792\sum xy = 30\,792, calculate SxyS_{xy}.

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[3 marks]Regression line of y on x

For 10 candidates who sat two 'O'-level mathematics papers, xˉ=56.6\bar{x}=56.6, yˉ=47.4\bar{y}=47.4, Sxx=3474.4S_{xx}=3474.4 and Sxy=3963.6S_{xy}=3963.6, where x is the Paper 1 mark and y is the Paper 2 mark.

Using the appropriate regression line, estimate the Paper 2 mark of a candidate who scored 65 % in Paper 1. Give your answer to the nearest whole mark.

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[3 marks]Regression line of x on y

For 10 candidates who sat two 'O'-level mathematics papers, xˉ=56.6\bar{x}=56.6, yˉ=47.4\bar{y}=47.4, Syy=5378.4S_{yy}=5378.4 and Sxy=3963.6S_{xy}=3963.6, where x is the Paper 1 mark and y is the Paper 2 mark.

Using the appropriate regression line, estimate the Paper 1 mark of a candidate who scored 50 % in Paper 2. Give your answer to the nearest whole mark.

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[2 marks]Scatter diagrams and correlation

The marks of 10 candidates in two 'O'-level mathematics papers give Sxx=3474.4S_{xx}=3474.4, Syy=5378.4S_{yy}=5378.4 and Sxy=3963.6S_{xy}=3963.6, where x is the Paper 1 mark and y is the Paper 2 mark.

What does a scatter diagram of these data show?

  1. AA strong positive linear relationship, with r=0.917r=0.917: candidates who scored well on Paper 1 also tended to score well on Paper 2.
  2. BA strong negative linear relationship, with r=−0.917r=-0.917: candidates who scored well on Paper 1 tended to score badly on Paper 2.
  3. CA weak positive linear relationship, with r=0.339r=0.339: the two papers measure largely unrelated skills across this group of candidates.
  4. DNo linear relationship at all, with r=0.028r=0.028: the points are scattered without any pattern from one paper to the other.
[2 marks]Unbiased estimate of a population mean

A random sample of 250 candidates in an Olympiad Examination gave ∑x=11 872\sum x = 11\,872 and ∑x2=646 193\sum x^{2} = 646\,193, where x is a candidate's mark.

Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population mean mark.

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[3 marks]Unbiased estimate of a population variance

A random sample of 250 candidates in an Olympiad Examination gave ∑x=11 872\sum x = 11\,872 and ∑x2=646 193\sum x^{2} = 646\,193, where x is a candidate's mark.

Calculate the unbiased estimate of the population variance.

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[3 marks]Confidence interval for a mean

A random sample of 250 candidates in an Olympiad Examination has mean mark 47.488 and unbiased estimate of standard deviation 18.19.

Calculate the upper limit of a 90 % confidence interval for the population mean mark.

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[2 marks]Hypothesis test for a mean

A random sample of 250 candidates in an Olympiad Examination has mean mark 47.488 and standard error of the mean 1.1506.

Calculate the value of the z test statistic for testing H0:μ=49H_{0}: \mu = 49 against H1:μ<49H_{1}: \mu < 49.

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[2 marks]Hypothesis test for a mean

A one-tailed test of H0:μ=49H_{0}: \mu = 49 against H1:μ<49H_{1}: \mu < 49 on a large sample gives a z test statistic of −1.314-1.314. At the 10 % level the critical value is −1.282-1.282, and P(Z<−1.314)=0.0944P(Z < -1.314) = 0.0944.

For which significance levels α\alpha is the null hypothesis rejected?

  1. AFor α>0.0944\alpha > 0.0944, that is for significance levels above about 9.4 %, since the null hypothesis is rejected exactly when the level exceeds the p-value.
  2. BFor every value of α\alpha, since the test statistic −1.314-1.314 is beyond the critical value −1.282-1.282 that the test used.
  3. CFor α<0.0944\alpha < 0.0944, that is for significance levels below about 9.4 %, since a smaller level makes the rejection region easier to reach.
  4. DFor α<0.0944\alpha < 0.0944, that is for significance levels below about 9.4 %, since lowering the level moves the critical value outwards and so makes the rejection region easier for the statistic to reach.

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