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Paper 2 · Specimen 2026 · Statistical Tests and Distributions

A one-tailed test at the 5%5\% level uses H0:p=0.4H_0: p = 0.4 against H1:p>0.4H_1: p > 0.4, with 44 passes out of 99 observed and P(X≥4)=0.517P(X \ge 4) = 0.517 under H0H_0. What is the correct conclusion?

AReject H0H_0, because 0.5170.517 is larger than the significance level of 0.050.05 that was set for the test.
BReject H0H_0, because the observed proportion 49=0.444\dfrac49 = 0.444 is greater than the assumed value of 0.40.4.
CDo not reject H0H_0: since 0.517>0.050.517 > 0.05, there is no evidence at the 5%5\% level of an improvement.
DThe test cannot be carried out, because a sample of 99 students is too small for a binomial model.

Explanation

A result is significant when its probability under H0H_0 falls below the significance level. Here 0.5170.517 is far above 0.050.05, so a result at least this good would happen more than half the time even if nothing had changed. H0H_0 is retained: there is no evidence of an improvement. The observed proportion being slightly above 0.40.4 is not by itself evidence, which is exactly what the test measures. The binomial model is valid for n=9n = 9; small nn simply makes the test less powerful.

Derived from ZIMSEC Additional Mathematics Paper 2, Specimen Paper, Q7

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